The dollar will remain very strong and will be difficult to overcome for most major currencies till 2024, according to a new report by Reuters who spoke to forex strategists.
Backed by a strong economy and rising U.S. Treasury yields, some of the highest among developed economies, the dollar despite bouts of weakness has stayed resilient against most major currencies.
Hitting a six-month peak as jitters over China and global growth weighed on risk appetite and expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold interest rates higher for longer, the safe-haven dollar recovered almost all of its mid-year losses and is now up over 1% for the year.
According to a Sept. 1-6 Reuters poll, 81% majority of forex analysts, 43 of 53, who answered an additional question said the risk to the dollar outlook was to the upside.
“We think dollar strength has got further to run and will sustain over the next three months,” said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank.
“In the next six to nine months, we are expecting the Fed to start to cut rates and it’s at that point where we think that the dollar will re-weaken again,” said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG.
The euro was forecast to trade 1.7% higher at $1.09 in three months, largely unchanged from an August survey.
It was forecast to have gained 2.7% to $1.10 and 4.6% to $1.12 in six and 12 months, respectively.
The Japanese yen, already down over 11% in 2023 against the dollar, trading at 147/dollar on Wednesday, was forecast to get back all of the current year’s losses and change hands at 132/dollar in the next 12 months.
Pounds Sterling, already up nearly 3.5% in 2023 was forecast to gain another 3% to 1.29 per dollar in a year, the report adds.